Saturday, October 11, 2008

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

May I remind you that exit polls in 2004 showed John Kerry to win the presidency. Bush won 286 to Kerry's 252. That shows one thing: people are not honest, for whatever reason, as to who they will vote for, or did vote for. Polls are for suckers. Let me say THIS about the polls:

1)it has already been acknowledged that there is a "Wilder effect," which is to say that some people SAY they will vote for Obama, but for whatever reason, they magically change their mind when it comes to voting. I borrowed the following from Wikipedia:

The term the "Wilder effect,"(or Bradley effect) refers to a proposed explanation for a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters' answers.

And as much as I acknowledge that racism is wrong, period . . . if racism helps cure this problem, then FINALLY racism has for the first time brought about GOOD. I do NOT believe that Obama should not be elected for ANY reason tied to his race. Let me be perfectly clear about that. I spent 7 years as a criminal defense attorney and represented blacks many times, often times FOR FREE, and pleaded with juries to acquit my black client . . . and found myself brought ot tears at times because my client was convicted and going to prison. But enough about me and my grandiose view of myself. this is about America. To hell with me.

2)POLLING . . . the devil's science

People watch the polls, and subconsciously EVERYONE wants to be for a winner, so when the "polls" say candidate X is favored, the natural tendency is for people to favor Candidate X . . . they don't want to be for a "loser." But how are these polls conducted. have YOU ever been called and asked your opinion? I didn't think so. Me neither. You know MY theory? Here it is. Republicans are people who do not want or NEED the Government to wipe their ass. Republicans LIVE THEIR LIVES and see the Government for what it is: the most inefficient out-of-touch institution ever invented . . . not the "solution" to ANYTHING. SO when the phone rings, Republicans are out having dinner, out shopping, enjoying LIFE. The people who answer the phone are mostly morons who answer their phone and want to give an answer that makes them feel like they are "informed" and "in the know." Where do they get their information? From the media who(unbeknownst to them) have given Obama a free pass to the extent that Hillary Clinton was UNFAIRLY DEFEATED in the Democratic Primary because of the free pass that even HILLARY complained of! Did you notice that ALL Of the final primaries were won by Hillary? Obama got the big lead he got because of the FREE PASS, and BARELY won in the end. And even THEN he wasn't smart enough to name Hillary as his running mate. But THIS is the guy who is going to be elected to the top position on EARTH?

3)Turnout

People can SAY whatever they want when the phone rings. The bottom line is WHO turns out to vote decides the election. These polls have been wrong time and time again. Space and time do not permit an expose on just how WRONG polls have been. The polls had Gore winning. Wrong. The polls had Kerry winning. Wrong again. And now the polls say Obama is winning. Over my dead body. And I am not the only one.

For the most part, people who stay AT HOME AND ANSWER THE PHONE are the have nots. The McCain voters are out enjoying life as the phone rings off the hook. The voter who supports Obama, more often than not, is the disenfranchised . . .they have no place to go, they have nothing to do, and so they answer their phone and recite the uneducated party line . . . "Obama" so they can feel better about themselves, completely unaware they are pawns in a game of class warfare. America will wake up on November 5 and be shocked AGAIN, as they always are. The media did everything it could, but came up short again. Why? There are still JUST ENOUGH people that CARE about this country to prevent 1)socialism from taking over, and 2)terrorism from running rampant

God Bless America!

1 comment:

Pure Waste said...

Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333